BEING A VOICE OF REASON IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
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When is the Economy Going to Recover?
The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.
Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.
Read the blog post, Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable, then share it or the graph below showing how top financial institutions are predicting a V-shaped recovery.
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No one can answer this question with one hundred percent certainty, but most top financial services firms are calling for a V-shaped recovery.
And two extensive research studies on economic rebounds from pandemics conclude the same thing – a V-shaped recovery.
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Are We Going Into a Recession?
With over 90% of Americans now under a shelter-in-place order, many experts are warning that the American economy is heading toward a recession, if it’s not in one already. What does that mean to the residential real estate market?
COVID-19 hit the pause button on the American economy in the middle of March. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are all calling for a deep dive in the economy in the second quarter of this year. Though we may not yet be in a recession by the technical definition of the word today, most believe history will show we were in one from April to June.
Read the blog post, Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No., then share it or the graph from the article.
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It’s important to remember one very important thing:
A recession does not equal a housing crisis or “crash” like we saw in 2008.
A recession doesn’t even mean that home prices will depreciate. If you look at the above graph, you’ll see that in the five most recent recessions, only two of them saw values decline.
If we’re not in a recession yet, we’re about to be in one. This time, however, housing will be the sector that leads the economic recovery.
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Is This Going to Be Like 2008?
With all of the unanswered questions caused by COVID-19 and the economic slowdown we’re experiencing across the country today, many are asking if the housing market is in trouble. For those who remember 2008, it’s logical to ask that question.
Many of us experienced financial hardships, lost homes, and were out of work during the Great Recession – the recession that started with a housing and mortgage crisis. Today, we face a very different challenge: an external health crisis that has caused a pause in much of the economy and a major shutdown of many parts of the country.
Read the blog post, Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again., to see five major reasons why this time is different and then share it with your clients.
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This is not like 2006-2008.
In the last six years, we have seen strong but stable appreciation.
The six years leading up to the bubble saw runaway appreciation.
What we know now is that housing is in a much stronger position today than it was in 2008.
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What About All Those Job Losses?
The financial pain so many families are facing right now is deep. That pain will be deep, but it won’t last as long as it did after previous crises. Taking the direst projection from Goldman Sachs for this current crisis, we see the unemployment rate drops quickly from 15% to 6-8%, and then returns to 4% in 2023.
When compared to the length of time it took to get back to work during both the Great Recession (9 years long) and the Great Depression (12 years long), we can see how the current timetable is much more favorable.
Read the blog post, The Pain of Unemployment: It Will Be Deep, But Not for Long, to learn more and then share it with your clients.
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Major institutions are forecasting unemployment rates last seen during the Great Depression.
As horrific as the numbers are, there is some good news. The pain will be deep, but it won’t last as long as it did after previous crises.
When we compare the length of time it took to get back to work during both the Great Recession (9 years long) and the Great Depression (12 years long), we can see how the current timetable is much more favorable.
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